Expected DA upto 81% from January, 2013 on September, 2012 AICPI-IW index

Expectation of future Dearness Allowance from January, 2013 on the basis of 2 points jump in CPI-IW for the month of August, 2012 and 1 point jump in September, 2012 giving expectation for DA  80% or more from January 2013.

All India Consumer Price Index Number [http://labourbureau.nic.in/indtab.html] for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) on base 2001=100 for September, 2012 showing increase in 1 point and stood at 215 (Two hundred and fifteen).

Expectation-1
 If we expect only 1 point increase in this index for every month the Dearness Allowance for Central Government Employee will touch 80% in January, 2013.  In view of increased LPG & Diesel price etc. we expect more monthly increase in Index and similarly in future DA.  Please go through the following calculation:-

Expected Dearness Allowance DA for Jan, 2013 calculated as under:

Dearness Allowance = (Avg of AICPI for the past 12 months - 115.76)*100/115.76

Month	Base Year 2001 = 100	Total of 12 Months	TwelvemonthlyAverage	% increase over 115.76 for   DA	DAannouncedor will beannounced
Dec-11	197	2298	191.50	65.43%	65%
Jan-12	198	2308	192.33	66.15%
Feb-12	199	2322	193.50	67.16%	72%
Mar-12	201	2338	194.83	68.31%
Apr-12	205	2357	196.42	69.68%
May-12	206	2376	198.00	71.04%
Jun-12	208	2395	199.58	72.41%
Jul-12	212	2414	201.17	73.78%
Aug-12	214	2434	202.83	75.22%	80%
Sep-12	215	2452	204.33	76.51%
Oct-12	216	2470	205.83	77.81%
Nov-12	217	2488	207.33	79.11%
Dec-12	218	2509	209.08	80.62%
Jan-13	Expected DA from January, 2013

Expectation-2

 If we expect 2 point increase in this index for every month the Dearness Allowance for Central Government Employee will exceed 80% in January, 2013.  In view of increased LPG & Diesel price etc. we expect more monthly increase in Index and similarly in future DA.  Please go through the following calculation:-

Expected Dearness Allowance DA for Jan, 2013 calculated as under:

Dearness Allowance = (Avg of AICPI for the past 12 months - 115.76)*100/115.76

Aug-12	214	2434	202.83	75.22%	81%
Sep-12	215	2452	204.33	76.51%
Oct-12	217	2471	205.92	77.88%
Nov-12	219	2491	207.58	79.32%
Dec-12	222	2516	209.67	81.12%
Jan-13	Expected DA from January, 2013

Hence, it is also clear that expectation of increase in DA from January, 2013 will not cross 9%.

DOWNLOAD: EXCEL FILE FOR EXPECTED DEARNESS CALCULATION TO CALCULATE YOURSELF [click on File-Menu & download]

PIB Release:

Ministry of Labour & Employment 31-October, 2012 

Consumer Price Index Numbers for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) September 2012

The All-India CPI-IW for September, 2012 rose by 1 point and pegged at 215 (two hundred and fifteen). On 1-month percentage change, it increased by 0.47 per cent between August and September compared with 1.55 per cent between the same two months a year ago. 

The largest upward contribution to the change in current index came from food items which increased by 0.87 per cent, contributing 0.68 percentage points to the total change. At item level, largest upward pressure came from Rice, Wheat & Wheat Atta, Grinding Charges, Arhar Dal, Eggs-Hen, Fish Fresh, Goat Meat, Milk-Buffalo, Tea (readymade), etc. Miscellaneous items like Electricity Charges, Fire wood, Medicine (Allopathic), etc. also put upward pressure in total change. 

The largest downward contribution to the change in current index came from Vegetables and Fruits with a decline of 4.38 per cent, contributing (-) 0.67 percentage points to the total change. The main downward pressure came from Tomato, Chilies-Green Apple & Banana. 

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-IW stood at 9.14 per cent for September, 2012 as compared to 10.31 per cent for the previous month and 10.06 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 11.00 per cent against 12.20 per cent of the previous month and 8.29 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. 

At centre level, Chhindwara recorded the largest increase of 8 points followed by Jalpaiguri and Ranchi Hatia (7 points each), Nasik (5 points) and Jharia (4 points). Among others, 12 centres registered a rise of 3 points followed by 2 points in 16 centres and 1 point in 22 centres. Giridih centre reported a decline of 3 points followed by Bhilwara with 2 points and other 7 centres registered a fall of 1 point each. Rest of the 14 centres’ indices remained stationary.

The indices of 40 centres are above All-India Index and other 37 centres’ indices are below national average. Ghaziabad’s index remained at par with all-India index. 

The next index of CPI-IW for the month of October, 2012 will be released on Wednesday, November 30, 2012. 

*****